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June 15, 2023

MLB Clubs Should Start Games 30 Minutes Later Next Season

Photo Credit: MLB

Major League Baseball wanted to speed up its games. So, the league implemented a pitch clock prior to the start of ‘23 season. Pitchers now have 15 seconds to deliver the ball from the time it is received from the catcher (20 if a runner is on base).

The controversial rule change has delivered as intended. The average nine-inning MLB game is taking two hours and 38 minutes so far this season, 26 minutes less than last year (3:04). Should the league finish the year on the same pace, it would be its fastest since 1984 (2:35). 

However, the brisk pace of play has inadvertently cost the league, many of its teams, and rights holders the highly viewed 10:00-10:30 p.m. nightly television window. Data suggests it would be smart business for clubs located in the Eastern and Central time zones to delay their start times 30 minutes next season to 7:40 pm.

Doing so would enable them and the other stakeholders to capitalize on broader viewership trends. Playfly Insights suggest a 3% increase in TV impressions during primetime telecasts could drive more than $10 million in additional ad revenue over the course of a 162-game season.

People used to say the charm of baseball is that it was a game without a clock.

That was a different time. Fans seem to like the faster game.

Playfly Insights, in partnership with Vision Insights, conducted a survey of 1,319 MLB fans between April 28-May 4, 2023 to better understand fan awareness of the rule changes and to get a feel for how they are being received. 55% responded that they view the changes to be very/somewhat positive versus only 9% that see them as very/somewhat negative.

But a quicker nine innings means games are ending earlier than years’ past.

While that reality has been welcomed by club personnel and the stadium workers who enjoy going home earlier, MLB teams and their rights holders are now missing out on what has typically been their most watched television window.

It seems logical for many to move their games back 30 minutes next season to capitalize on increased viewing levels later in the evening. Remember, the problem MLB was trying to solve for was that the games were taking too long, not that they were running too late.

Moving first pitch from 7:10 to 7:40 would enable clubs to swap out the least viewed half hour of game broadcasts for a time period with a considerably larger available audience–and do it without further sacrificing young fans or early risers.

“If you look at the 10-10:30 half hour versus the 7-7:30 half hour, which is what the swap would be, there is a 26% difference in viewing amongst 18-49,” Gregg Liebman (head of research, Playfly Insights) said.

That increase would raise total viewership over a full game by 3%.

3% may not sound like a lot. But “in a marketplace where flat is the new up, and its so hard to get eyeballs, every impression matters,” Liebman said.

And a nominal increase in impressions on a nightly basis can equate to tens of millions of dollars over the course of a season. That estimate does not even account for the fact that viewership levels tend to rise as games go along. In other words, the opportunity may be even greater than the straight math presents.

Playfly’s analysis used Nielsen data and focused a metric called PUT (persons using television), which measures the percentage of TV households in MLB markets that have their TV on at a given time. It covered primetime games played to date across both the regional and national broadcast landscape, and included all teams within the Eastern, Central and Mountain time zones.

Clubs wouldn’t have to sacrifice younger viewers to move start times back 30 minutes, either; at least those within the buying demos. The data shows the viewership increase would be greater amongst 18–49-year-olds (+26%) than amongst 25-54s (+23%).

30 minutes is likely the most teams would want to move a primetime start. Young fans outside the buying demos still have bedtimes, and long-time fans have established routines that clubs must account for.

Viewership levels on the west coast tend to be relatively flat between 7:00 and 10:30pm local time. So, there is less of a reason for clubs located in the Mountain and Pacific time zones to shift their start times. The presumption is folks on the west coast generally start and end their days earlier, with some working on east coast time.

While the number of fans watching games should increase with 7:40 local start times, the move wouldn't come without concerns. It’s unknown how pushing games back might impact in-stadium per-caps (think: fans may opt to eat dinner at home). Later starts could also make it more difficult for families to attend (think: kids get tired). The competition for television viewers gets stronger as the night goes on too.

But sports is a business and “more impressions [and] more eyeballs should translate into more sellable commercial inventory and ultimately more money,” Liebman said.

So, expect more 7:40pm start times for clubs located in the Eastern and Central time zones next season.

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The Sunday Column by Roger Mitchell

Roger Mitchell's Sunday Column and his podcast Are You Not Entertained (AYNE) explore the uncertain waters of sport and finance to try and better understand the risks facing the sports business. Recent Story: Paolo Maldini, Il Gattopardo.

Excerpt: You idiot! As a business vision, European football is a fucking basket-case of stupidity. Every fresh penny they make, whoring their product out, is pissed away the same day. It’s a dick substitute for billionaires wanting the fame and relevance that a bank account won’t give them. Wealthy bad actors spunking the topline up the wall on players, like Imelda Marcos in a Gucci store. That obliges everyone else to do the same, with insolvency the inevitable bastard child of their relegation/promotion. Even Connor could see all this.

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