Diamondbacks Highly Likely to Remain in Arizona


The Diamondbacks gained the freedom to leave the state of Arizona as early as 2022, when it dropped a $187 million lawsuit against Maricopa County claiming funds owed for stadium reparations and improvements. A recent report from the Las Vegas Review Journal indicating that the city of Henderson tried to quietly lure the Major League Baseball franchise to Southern Nevada has only served to increase speculation about its future – or lack thereof – in the Copper State. However, a source with knowledge of ownership’s thoughts tells JohnWallStreet that the construction of a new venue within the state remains the most likely outcome. It is possible that the club will decide to invest in a major renovation of Chase Field, but that is considered a less desirable solution. The franchise will only explore relocation once all other avenues have been exhausted.

Howie Long-Short: Chase Field was built in the mid 1990s. The 2019 MLB season is its 22nd in use, so the building is coming up on the end of its life cycle; most pro sports venues are good for +/- 30 years.

Contrary to reports, the deal the team agreed to with Maricopa County allows it to leave the Phoenix stadium immediately – for another venue within the state. The problem is, there’s no real viable alternative to serve as the Diamondbacks home. The team will continue to invest the funds necessary to keep Chase Field safe and secure while it looks for a long-term stadium solution. Should the building become untenable (think: A/C systems fails), the team can elect to immediately relocate outside the state.

Our source said that there remains a “high likelihood” the Diamondbacks’ future will exist in Arizona. While the litigation settlement referenced allows for the team to move outside the state come ’22, a mixed-use development in suburban Phoenix provides ownership with the greatest growth opportunity (see: Atlanta). The club “has not excluded a future in downtown Phoenix” from its list of potential destinations, either; of course, downtown PHX doesn’t offer the vast real estate desired for a commercial project of that magnitude.

If the Diamondbacks are going to invest in a wholesale makeover of Chase Field reducing the seating capacity would be a good place to start. In fact, it’s probably worth considering even if the team isn’t long for the venue. Creating a more intimate environment and limiting the supply of tickets will only help to increase the value of the remaining seats.

The Diamondbacks did conduct an engineering assessment to explore the viability of retrofitting University of Phoenix Stadium. The building has many of the physical attributes the team desires (see: capacity, climate control), but it was determined that the Cardinals’ home would require an investment of at least $100 million before it could house a baseball team on a temporary basis; the club does not believe the building can play host to both a football team and a baseball team full-time. To be clear, had the price been $25 million the franchise would have at least considered the venue as a temporary home.

Fan Marino: Henderson, NV was among several cities outside of AZ that obtained an RFP from the Diamondbacks in the wake of their settlement with Maricopa County. Discussions never advanced beyond courtesy calls between the team’s operational staff (i.e. not the decision makers) and city officials and the two sides never met in person. 

It’s unclear which cities besides Henderson responded to the RFP, but a source familiar with MLB expansion/relocation discussions cited six locales – in addition to Henderson/Las Vegas – considered capable of supporting a pro baseball team. Montreal, Nashville, Vancouver, Charlotte, San Antonio and the Tidewater region of Virginia were the names given (in no particular order). The ones willing to invest in new stadiums, are the ones that will ultimately land teams.

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Geopolitics, Recency Bias and Pending OLE Transaction Force Endeavor to Delay IPO


Endeavor Group Holdings (Endeavor) has announced it plans to delay the company’s IPO until the fall season. September is now the earliest that the public will have the chance to buy into the entertainment and marketing company. Endeavor hopes to finalize the $700 million acquisition of On Location Experiences before going to market at a $7 billion to $8 billion valuation. The Wall Street Journal reported that the company intends on raising more than $500 million.

Howie Long-Short: Endeavor’s decision to postpone their IPO was a wise one. The market remains in flux with a Chinese trade war (currency war) looming and with the currency exchange rate also in significant flux day-to-day, it’s becoming increasingly difficult to forecast foreign exchange rates relative to currency (i.e. dollars vs. Renminbi vs. Yen). Now is not the right time for a U.S. company – particularly one that has SoftBank as an investor – to introduce an IPO targeting global buyers. There would likely be a recency bias at play here as well. Institutional investors that watched the Wanda Sports Group IPO flop are certainly wondering how Endeavor is any different; in their eyes, they’re both debt laden (will owe $3.1 billion after paying down hundreds of millions in debt post IPO) agency businesses.

Timing aside, Endeavor is a highly leveraged business that needs to find a path to long-term profitability. The company reported just $231 million in 2018 net income (on $3.61 billion in revenue) after four straight years of posting losses. Bumping the IPO into Q3 will allow the company to show its Q2 earnings results. Assuming they’re on an upward swing, it should help the company’s pre-IPO valuation.

The perception that Endeavor is a talent business is inaccurate. Historically speaking, WME-IMG generated much of their revenue from television (think: re-licensing and production). But the emergence of OTT has compromised the licensing business and AI-based production (see: ability to create content with fewer cameras and people) has rapidly cut into profits on that side of the operation. An ongoing battle with the Writers Guild of America over “the future of packaging fees and affiliated production” is indicative of a changing business. As it currently stands, Endeavor generates more money from negotiating media deals than from any other revenue stream.

As long reported, Endeavor would like to acquire the 80% of On Location Experiences that is not owned by the NFL before filing. The price being floated and the prospect of taking on additional debt has scared the company off to date, but the chance to diversify their portfolio with a high-end hospitality and live events company, while increasing revenues remains appealing.

Fan Marino: The UFC is among Endeavor’s most valuable assets, so news that the company plans to introduce Zuffa boxing – a promotion to be led by Dana White – is significant. One high profile boxing insider told JohnWallStreet that if Zuffa is willing to build the next generation of boxers organically – as opposed to buying an established stable of fighters – there’s no reason that they can’t replicate what they’ve done in MMA. There is no single dominant promotion in the boxing space, live sports content remains in demand and “[Endeavor] has tremendously sophisticated marketers. This is an opportunity to reimagine the sport. Drug testing, health insurance, the number of rounds, the size of the gloves; it can be a blank canvas.”

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The Ringer Staff Unionizes, Trend Forming Amongst Digital Media Properties


The editorial, video, podcasting and social staff at The Ringer has announced its intent to unionize with the Writers Guild of America (WGA), East – the same organization that supports SB Nation (a subsidiary of Vox) team personnel. Together they’ll work to ensure that every employee receives “necessary support, protection and fair compensation.” Before collective bargaining negotiations can begin, Bill Simmons’ company will need to recognize the union; failure to do so will result in a National Labor Relations Board vote to determine if/when discussions can/will commence. The announcement comes as digital media publishers across the country face increased pressure to “share the wealth” with the “editors, writers, podcasters, producers, fact checkers, copy editors, illustrators, designers, and social media editors” that make up the “foundation of [their] brand.”

Howie Long-Short: Fear is driving the trend of unionization across digital media (see: BuzzFeed, Refinery29, Gimlet Media, Vice and G/O Media). As the industry becomes increasingly more challenging (think: pressure on advertising revenues, amount of competition in marketplace), many feel as if their jobs have become tenuous. The hope is that the strength of a union will secure their future, but it’s formation is more likely to establish a false sense of security in those individuals; a company that is struggling, lays off union employees the same as those working on a part-time or contract basis.

The GM of a high-profile sports media outlet assured JohnWallStreet that there is little in the way of profits to be shared at The Ringer, so it’s worth wondering if unionization was the right decision for those that work for Bill Simmons’ three-year-old digital property. If you consider that “a union makes it harder for a media company to service its customers at a time when those in the industry require the most flexibility” – the example cited was a union in opposition of on-air talent editing their own video – then you can certainly argue the formation of one works against everybody’s best interests.

If The Ringer isn’t particularly profitable and the formation of a union provides little in the way of real security, it’s worth wondering why the company’s employees would proceed down that path. Remember, many within the industry are simply happy to have steady work and the chance remains that the formation of a union could backfire on its members; Vox has moved towards hiring more part-time and contract employees since it’s roster aligned with WGA, East, while Joe Rickets decided to shut down DNA Info and The Gothamist after their staffs’ opted to unionize. One industry insider suggested that the formation of The Ringer union is the employees “uprising against Bill.” Considering that the group stated in their letter of intent that they want to be “properly credited for their multimedia work” (Simmons receives much/all the attention associated with the outlet) and that “Bill is making a sh*t ton of money and they’re not”, there may be something to that theory.  

Both of the influential sports media executives that we spoke to agreed that employees at a widely profitable company would likely benefit from the formation of a union, so there was a consensus that it’s just a matter of time before folks at companies like ESPN – that make real money – follow in the footsteps of their brethren at the digital-first outlets cited.

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Saudi Arabia Lands Ruiz-Joshua II

Clash on the Dunes

Matchroom Boxing has announced that the rematch between Anthony Joshua and WBA, IBF, WBO and IBO heavyweight champion Andy Ruiz, Jr. will take place in Diriyah, Saudi Arabia on December 7th. The General Sports Authority of Saudi Arabia will pay a site fee north of $50 million to host the ‘Clash on the Dunes’ event. As one might expect, the decision to stage the fight in the middle east as opposed to in Wales (as anticipated) or in Tijuana (as Ruiz preferred) has been heavily criticized.

Howie Long-Short: Some look at the choice to go to Saudi Arabia as Hearn cashing in his chips on Joshua – he certainly knows a 2nd defeat would kill his golden goose. I’m not so sure. As one high ranking DAZN executive said, “if [Hearn] thinks Joshua is going to lose, then it surely makes sense to take the payday now. But if he thinks A.J. is going to win, why not also take the [$50 million+] now?

The counter argument is for Hearn to maximize Joshua’s value, he needs to raise the fighter’s profile in the U.S and a fight that airs at 4p EST/1p PST (Saudi Arabia is +7 hours ahead) will draw less eyeballs than one airing on Saturday night; there’s also going to be significantly less media attending a fight in the KSA, so ‘Clash on the Dunes’ won’t receive the coverage it should stateside. Both are valid points, but neither matters unless A.J. is victorious. The executive we spoke to agreed saying “go win and then you can get back to deciding how to market.

To be clear, DAZN had “no say – zero” in the decision to host the fight in the KSA. Our source within the company explained “the promoter puts on the fight and they choose the venue – we just get to stream it.” While it has not been formally announced that DAZN will carry the fight, Hearn’s relationship with the company makes it all but certain.

DAZN obviously would have preferred the fight be held in the U.S., but our source said “after that, every city is just about the same. London may be some percentage better than Diriyah, but now you’re fighting over details; and you can make the argument that the controversy surrounding Saudi Arabia will bring more attention [to the fight] than had it been held in London.” It’s worth noting that DAZN will end up paying less to stream the fight from the KSA than they would have had it been in the U.S.

The truth is, from the DAZN POV too much is being made about the location of Ruiz-Joshua II. Their marquee attraction is Canelo Alvarez and as we were told “the most important thing to [DAZN’s] U.S. business is his next fight. Canelo is the LeBron of boxing in this country. A.J. is the Durant. Durant is amazing, but he’s not LeBron. There is only one superstar and it is Canelo Alvarez.

Andy Ruiz Jr. is contractually obligated to take the rematch and the $9 million he’s guaranteed, but that doesn’t mean he’s showing up in Saudi Arabia under those terms. The Athletic is reporting that Ruiz has refused to sign-off on the fight unless he receives “a significantly higher purse.” There’s certainly a case to be made that he deserves more, but I don’t believe he has much leverage. Ruiz loses much of his marketability without those four belts.

Fan Marino: The DAZN executive we spoke to was uncomfortable with the idea of attending an event where female colleagues may be uncomfortable or unwelcome. Others oppose going out of concern the Saudi authorities are using the event to “sportswash’ their severely tarnished image.” When asked if I would be willing to attend if invited, I said yes; that as a sports business processional and sports fan, it’s a once in a lifetime opportunity to attend a heavyweight championship fight outdoors in the middle east.

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NBA “Thinking Like Other Business Enterprises”, Plans African Expansion


The NBA has announced the seven African cities – Cairo (Egypt), Dakar (Senegal), Lagos (Nigeria), Luanda (Angola), Rabat (Morocco) and either Monastir or Tunis (Tunisia) – that will play host to the Basketball Africa League’s (BAL) 30-game regular season schedule; the BAL Final Four and BAL Final will be held in Kigali, Rwanda. Twelve teams will participate in the league’s inaugural season, which is set to tip-off in March of 2020. Each team is scheduled to play five games. The three teams in each conference with the best records (aka the “Super Six”) at the completion of those games will move on to a round robin playoff to determine the Final Four participants.

Howie Long-Short: The NBA has long tried to grow the game of basketball abroad, so the formation of the BAL furthers that mission. The timing is also right to introduce a pro hoops league on the continent. Bryant McBride, who sits on the board of Ubumwe (a grassroots basketball initiative operating in Rwanda), said “the dollars being spent in Africa aren’t commensurate with eyeballs over there, but people want – and need – ways to spend their increasing disposable incomes.

Partnering with FIBA on the venture was a wise decision. The international basketball federation has experience working with national governing bodies and has proven deft at facilitating competition between teams from multiple countries – each of which present unique political challenges. McBride asserts that “corruption is [also] a problem in many of these markets.” Theoretically, FIBA should be able help the NBA navigate some of these issues; Obama’s involvement certainly won’t hurt.

The NBA has been investing in African grassroots programs for +/- 10 years. To this point, participants never had more than a long-shot chance at being discovered and earning an NBA tryout. That changes with the formation of a viable pro league on the continent, so expect more African-born players on NBA rosters over the next decade (13 made opening night rosters last season). Ken Shropshire, CEO of Global Sport Institute at Arizona State University, said that theories suggest “there should always be a tip to the pyramid. People aren’t [willing to invest the time into being great at something] if there’s no real chance at success. The BAL will give young players something to aspire for.

McBride agreed. He said, “look at Pascal Siakam (plays for Raptors). There’s 50 or 100 other guys like him over there that just haven’t had the opportunity. When professional opportunities are provided regularly, when there is training available on a regular basis, when people can be sure that they are going to get paid – participation rises.

While the BAL provides the NBA with an opportunity to discover talent, Shropshire reminds that the league has Basketball without Borders and camps in francophone Africa and South Africa for that purpose; it doesn’t need to invest in another pro league to find guys who can play. He says that the league’s African expansion is simply a case of the NBA “thinking like other business enterprises. The first-place big business looks to for international growth is China, the next is India and then third is Africa. There’s been all sorts of speculation about Africa’s economic potential and how much is going to be spent there.

It’s unclear exactly what the NBA’s financial upside is on the continent, as Shropshire noted “all of the projections are based on forecasted revenues, not current numbers.” But it’s reasonable to assume that the ceiling is lower than it is in China; the population is smaller and much of the continent remains under-developed.

Speaking of China, the NBA’s investment in the country has yet to really pay off in terms of on-court production, but a 5-year media rights extension with Tencent – worth +/- 3x the value of the expiring deal (up to $1.5 billion) – means the league’s Chinese investment is starting to pay off financially.

Fan Marino: Last season, 108 foreign born players (22% of the league) made an NBA team’s opening night roster. Those players came from 42 unique countries showing how diverse the league truly is. For comparison purposes, MLB – the second most diverse of the big four sports leagues – has players from just 20 unique countries.

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Increased Focus on Media Engagement, Promotion Within Core Markets Sparks NASCAR Turnaround


After several years of sharp ratings declines, NASCAR television viewership is on rise again. Nielsen reported that the 2019 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series averaged 4,076,000 viewers/race through the first half of this season (+2% YoY, excluding weather-impacted races). JohnWallStreet spent last weekend at Watkins Glen trying to find out what the drivers think the catalyst for the turnaround has been. The common theme among them was the belief that NASCAR president Steve Phelps’ increased focus on promoting the sport was driving it back in the right direction.

Howie Long-Short: It’s reasonable to wonder if a series of tight races (see Fan below) is responsible for stopping the ratings slide, but 7x Cup Series champion Jimmie Johnson and Landon Cassill, driver of the #00 Chevrolet, don’t believe the ratings uptick is related to the competition on the track. Johnson pointed out that “stage racing isn’t new [instituted in 2017] and Cup Series racing has been highly competitive for a long time.” Cassill agreed saying there’s been “good and bad racing throughout [his] career, with every package” [and yet ratings have always declined].

Cassill believes the ratings increase is the product of the series’ renewed focus on marketing. He said, “like most businesses, everything starts at the top and NASCAR leadership – from Steve on down – has gotten serious about promoting the sport.” Aric Almirola (driver of the #10 Ford) agreed adding that “for a long-time, NASCAR just assumed the fans knew the race was on TV and that they would tune in to watch; but, fans have a lot of other entertainment options on Sunday afternoons. Steve has done a great job of making sure we all understand the targeted mission (see: growing the sport’s popularity) and what our role is [off the track].”

That role includes regular interviews with the media. Drivers say their media obligations have increased this season (see: new requirement forcing Sunday’s top ten finishers to speak post-race and a mandate that every driver meets with the media either before or after qualifying), but none that we spoke to balked at the responsibility. In fact, Cassill suggested television viewership is impacted – if not driven – by the media’s narrative – or lack thereof – and that regular driver interactions with reporters help to keep a sport that has just one race a week, in the news throughout the seven-day cycle.

Perhaps no strategic marketing initiative has given a greater boost to NASCAR ratings than the identification of the markets with the most rabid racing fans (see: Atlanta, Charlotte, Dallas, Nashville, Raleigh, Greenville SC, Greensboro NC, Cleveland, Kansas City, Tampa) and a subsequent increase in promotional efforts – and spend – in those cities. Almirola said he’s noticed the sport making a concerted effort to increase driver activations in those core markets. It seems to be working. Through the FOX portion of the season schedule, television ratings are up +7% YoY in those targeted markets.

Johnson agreed with Almirola’s assessment that NASCAR has “been more strategic with marketing the product” and pointed out that “the start times of races” have changed. He might be onto something. Sunday afternoon races are indeed starting consistently later this season than years past. The green flag now typically drops between 2-3:30p EST. It’s certainly possible that the new window draws more viewers.

2018 Daytona 500 winner Austin Dillon didn’t challenge what any of the other drivers had to say, but wanted to add that the sport’s budding group of young charismatic drivers (see: Chase Elliott, Ryan Blaney, Bubba Wallace and Dillon himself) also likely have had something to do with the increase in viewership.

Fan Marino: While the drivers didn’t want to attribute the ratings uptick to on-track performance, there is a strong argument to be made that this season’s new package has enhanced the racing product. The first 22 races of the season produced 704 green flag passes for the lead, compared to just 504 at this point last year (+39.7% YoY) and 14 of the 22 races (63.6%) this season finished with a margin of victory of less than one second – the most since 1994 (also with 14 of the first 22 races).

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TBT Finds Success with Regional Sites, Expected to Reach Profitability in ‘20


Carmen’s Crew (a collective of former Ohio State University basketball players) beat Golden Eagles (Marquette University basketball’s alumni team) in the championship game of The Basketball Tournament (TBT) on Tuesday night. As champions of the 64-team, single elimination, winner-take-all tournament, the OSU squad will split a $2 million prize. The game concluded the 6th edition of TBT. While the tournament has yet to turn a profit, six straight summers of year over year growth and a shrewd decision to hyper-regionalize game sites has it on the precipice of profitability. Founder and CEO Jon Mugar said that he’s fully expecting TBT to be in the black come 2020.

Howie Long-Short: TBT generates its revenues “as one would expect” a professional basketball tournament would. Sponsorship sales are the “biggest line” (+80% YoY). Ticketing revenues “are growing” (+ 350% YoY to $875K through semi-finals) and there is a “small” merchandising component (+80% YoY) to the business. While Mugar would not share details of TBT’s broadcast deal with ESPN, he did say the tournament’s media rights are “a revenue line.

Ticketing sales figures have consistently climbed as TBT has massaged its model. In 2014, the entire tournament was played in Philadelphia. From there, it expanded to four sites in major metropolitan areas before really finding success this year with eight regional locations; with a small marketing budget and so much competition for the sports fans’ dollar, TBT found it difficult to compete in the bigger cities. Of course, it shouldn’t be a surprise that fans in cities like Syracuse and Columbus would turn out in numbers – particularly in the middle of summer when there is no other game in town (save minor league baseball) – to support the home team’s stars of yesteryear.

TBT’s ability to find an organic marketing partner in each of the eight regional markets will go a long way towards ensuring its profitability. Of the regional destinations that hosted games in ’19, Wichita sold the most tickets. That’s not a coincidence. TBT’s partner was Wichita State University, which “marketed the games to their existing fan base like it was a college event.” A.D. Darron Boatright was wise to gamble on the start-up hoops property – the school grossed more than $400,000 over the course of a single weekend. Mugar deemed it “very reasonable” to believe that TBT will have other schools onboard as official partners next summer.

July and August are supposed to be the off-season, but with the WNBA, the NBA Summer League, TBT and BIG3 (plus Drew League and tours like HoopItUp) the summer-time basketball calendar has become crowded. Mugar believes each property appeals to a different segment of the greater basketball fan base leaving room for them all to succeed. That seems unlikely, but with a business model that is expected to turn a profit in 2020 and a deep pocketed owner, TBT looks like it will be a summer staple for years to come.

Fan Marino: Mugar understands that with limited history (and thus storylines) to draw on, that TBT needs to find another way to stoke fan emotions. He said that when selecting the 64 participants (from the pool of 100+ entrants) there’s “a focus on identifying the natural affinity group that will have interest in following the team.”  If you look at this year’s bracket you’ll notice that 40% of the teams are alumni based, but there are some exceptions. DeMarcus Cousins and Chris Paul sponsored teams which allowed TBT to tap into their fan bases and “there was a team from Jackson, TN – with four long-haul truckers – that took that town by storm.

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ESPN+ May Have Best Programming, But Too Early to Pronounce as Sports Streaming Leader


Sports Illustrated published a story entitled, ‘As the Digital Rights Battle Continues, Has a Sports Streaming Leader Emerged?’ making the case that Bundesliga’s pending move (from beIN Sports) to ESPN+ (come 2020) is indicative of a streaming battle that’s tilting in favor of the Disney subsidiary; ESPN has also acquired the broadcast rights to both Serie A and the FA Cup over the last 12 months. It’s not inaccurate to say ESPN+ currently has the best programming lineup amongst sports-centric digital providers, but it’s far too early to “pronounce a leader”; OTT adoption rates remain minuscule relative to linear television and will remain that way as long as linear television has broadcast rights to every meaningful NFL, MLB, NBA or NHL game.

Howie Long-Short: ESPN’s aggressive pursuit of global soccer rights for ESPN+ is built on the premise that a “buffet of great leagues and tournaments [from] around the world” would make it a ‘must have’ for hardcore soccer fans. While most within that group would likely agree, the pool and thus the upside in potential subscription numbers is limited; and as Yannick Ramcke (media industry observer, author of the blog OFFTHEFIELDBUSINESS.de) reminds “it’s difficult to grow a sport’s core audience if the best games are exclusive to digital channels with little exposure to the mainstream sports fan.

The worldwide leader has also chosen to pursue European soccer rights out of necessity. If the big four sports leagues aren’t going to award exclusive rights packages of meaningful scale/scope to digital-only companies “anytime soon”, then “acquiring long-tail content for retention and cyclical marquee events in boxing or MMA for new user acquisition is the best a service like ESPN+ can currently do.” Don’t think exclusivity is important? Ramcke said that the data shows if programming is available on linear television and OTT simultaneously that “digital makes up just 1% to 3% of the total viewership.” Today’s main stream sports fan, particularly those born before 1980, needs to be forced to adopt digital services; and that only happens if there is no linear alternative.

While European soccer does sell subscriptions, ESPN’s decision to outbid FOX Sports, beIN and the recently launched streaming services on international soccer rights has more to do with retaining digital subscribers than it does bringing in new ones. As Ramcke said, “the real challenge for pure-sports streaming services is keeping users in between marquee events. High-profile, cyclical events such as UFC PPVs drive sign-ups, but constant week-to-week programming is the key to retaining them.

As for FOX Sports – which doesn’t have an OTT service (Soccer Match Pass appears to be going the way of the dodo) and thus isn’t worried about churn – there is no urgency to retain rights to sports that draw a limited audience (FOX Sports pulls <100,000 fans for Bundesliga games). Instead, they’ll use their resources to acquire/retain tier one rights for the limited space they have available on the linear networks; a premium strategy that has become a go-to-move for many traditional sports broadcasters without a stand-alone digital outlet.

As S.I. writer Jacob Feldman noted, from a business standpoint, sports-centric OTT services remains an unproven commodity. Aggressively spending (due to fierce competition) for long-tail programming combined with aggressive pricing is not a viable long-term business model, so it’s worth wondering just how much runway these companies have. Ramcke says most are planning based on a one-to-three-year window, but believes none will have longer than four years to covert linear subscribers in mass. “Either they’ll land big four rights and consumers will be forced to adopt the service(s) or they won’t survive. Companies like ESPN and DAZN are burning through cash and have to get to the end-game, which is landing top-tier rights.”

Fan Marino: Tom Richardson, head of strategy and development for Mercury Intermedia (a leading mobile and connected TV app developer) and a professor at Columbia University (Sports Management grad program) suggested if ESPN+ is in fact the real or perceived leader it’s because of the marketing machine behind them. “ESPN is promoting ESPN+ ubiquitously. These other services must rely on paid media because they don’t have their own channels. That’s a huge advantage. As pure play digital media companies, your promotional platform is nearly non-existent.

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Enshrinement Extends HOF Inductees’ Commercial Viability, Could Increase Marketing Opportunities By +50%


Last night’s Hall of Fame Game between the Denver Broncos and Atlanta Falcons kicked off the NFL’s annual ‘Enshrinement Week’. The Class of 2019 Hall of Fame (HOF) induction will take place tomorrow evening (8.3). For most NFL players, retirement means the end of lucrative marketing opportunities, but HOF inductees will find that a six (or seven) figure career awaits. The gold jacket represents the “gold standard” amongst pro football players – it also ensures an extension of the athlete’s commercial viability and immediately enhances their consumer marketability. Jordan Bazant, who is head of the sports talent division at WME, explained “players are commercially viable until they stop scoring touchdowns. Entering the Hall of Fame keeps the spotlight on the player in their post-playing days extending that window. The title ‘Hall of Famer’ also adds credence to a player’s message. They’re no longer just a former NFL star, they’re now recognized as an all-time great with these valuable brands attributes.

Howie Long-Short: Commercial opportunities are greatest for the highest profile Hall of Famers, not necessarily the ones who accomplished the most on-field. As a result, those who played post 1990 receive the bulk of the work. Remember, the NFL didn’t offer an out-of-market television package that allowed fans to watch every game (and thus every player) until ’94. Believe it or not, there was a time when if a team wasn’t scheduled to play on Monday Night Football (or Thanksgiving) and wasn’t on the local team’s schedule, fans didn’t see it play.

Steve Rosner, co-founder of 16W Marketing, says that the most marketable HOFs will find a variety of potential options to engage in both their pro and college markets. “There will be a lot of opportunities to do appearances and corporate events. There will also be team and league sponsors looking to activate campaigns.” Part of the reason why retired players are attractive to brands is that an injury to a current star could derail a campaign. “Of course, there are always memorabilia deals to be had too.”

Rosner estimated that a retired player’s revenue opportunities could climb +50% to +70% in the first two years following induction before leveling off. Bazant, who represents Troy Aikman, Chris Carter & Marshall Faulk among others, didn’t dispute that a +50% increase could be achieved, but he said that it would take a less heralded player to enjoy that kind of jump. Players with the national visibility the three guys referenced have are unlikely to see a jump greater than +10% to +20% because the value of their brands were already strong to begin with.

The position the inductee played also impacts their post-career earning potential. The reason brands seek out quarterbacks is because while their teammates’ faces remain mostly anonymous behind facemasks, fans see the signal caller regularly being interviewed without a helmet on. Bazant said that a high-profile quarterback could still command enough work to rake in seven-figures in marketing deals annually. While the bar is lower for other positions, Rosner suggested that reaching the mid-to-high six figures remained feasible.

Fan Marino: This year’s HOF inductees are Champ Bailey, Tony Gonzalez, Ty Law, Kevin Mawae, Ed Reed, Pat Bowlen, Gil Brandt and Johnny Robinson. The average football fan likely knows the first five names on the list, Pat Bowlen was the influential owner of the Denver Broncos and Johnny Robinson was an all-pro safety for the Chiefs in the late 60’s/early 70’s, but it is Gil Brandt’s contributions to the league that will live on the longest. Brandt, the Cowboys VP of Player Personnel of 29 years, is credited with developing the talent evaluation process that ultimately led to the creation of the NFL Scouting Combine (and the selection of 9 HOFs). He’s also recognized as one of the first front office executives to use a computer in the player evaluation process and the first to use psychological testing to measure a player’s ability to respond under pressure.

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Wanda Sports Group Misses IPO Target by 60%, Share Price in Free-Fall


Wanda Sports Group (WSG), the sporting arm of the Chinese conglomerate Dalian Wanda Group, raised $190.4 million in a smaller-than-expected U.S. IPO on Friday July 26. The Infront Sports & Media AG (a Swiss marketing co.) and World Triathlon Corp. (WTC, the co. behind the IRONMAN) owner priced shares at $8 (below a previously reduced $9-$11 target, originally $12-$15), valuing the company at +/- $1 billion. The share price declined -35.5% (to $5.16) on the first day of trading and has continued to slide since (closing at $4.92 on 7.31). Triathlon participation is on the decline – the NYT reported U.S.A. Triathlon membership is down -25% over the last 5 years, but it’s the company’s debt-laden balance sheet and a geopolitical climate that has the U.S. investor hesitant to invest in Chinese businesses that explain why WSG had 2nd worst debut of 2019. The worst IPO of the year was held by another Chinese corporation, Ruhnn Holding.

Howie Long-Short: WSG had initially set out to raise $500 million. Two days prior to the IPO the company lowered their target to $308 million, so selling less than $200 million worth of shares must be considered a disappointment. The shortfall also begs the question, if the company is $300 million short of the capital infusion needed, are any of the future projects in which the IPO was based in danger of being shelved? It certainly won’t become any easier to raise the balance given how much they missed by.

Missing the company’s target by 60% – and then watching the share price immediately fall another -39% – would indicate that WSG either lacks an understanding of the U.S. marketplace or the leadership to pivot when it was determined that the market was too soft for the product. Neither of those scenarios would give an investor confidence.

Geopolitical issues are also contributing to tepid investor interest. With the Chinese government pushing down on industries deemed to be potentially harmful (see: video games), there’s a level of uncertainty currently surrounding China-based sports or leisure driven entities.

Triathlon participation numbers in the U.S. are dwindling, so it’s reasonable to suspect that too has contributed to the WSG fire sale. The NYT article focuses on the high costs associated with the sport (think: bikes, swim time), but the formation of less demanding experiential athletic events like Tough Mudder and Spartan Race is the real source of the decline. The perception exists that millennials or Gen-Z’s who would otherwise attempt participate in IRONMAN events now have other options.

President Philippe Blatter swears there is a “long-term strategy” in place, but inquiring minds would like to know what that vision is. A review of the company’s holdings reflects a hodge-podge of niche properties. Bill Squadron (former President of Bloomberg Sports, experienced in acquisitions, strategic planning and large scale joint ventures) wonders “do they want to be a global rights distributor or is their desire to own properties and operate events? Companies are typically defined by a single area of expertise. Theirs is unclear and my experience with publicly traded sports properties has been that the market responds most favorably when a company’s direction is certain.” It’s difficult for an investor to get comfortable with an equity if they’re unable to confidently forecast the future.

Announcing plans to use a significant portion of the “proceeds to repay debt” won’t excite investors, but Squadron says there are so many other factors (think: rights agreements, long-term partnerships) that an investor would look at to assess a company’s full financial picture. He’s right, debt’s not necessarily indicative of poor financial standing, but WSG saw profits decline -31% in 2018 (to $60 million), the company posted a $9.5 million loss in Q1 ’19 and as mentioned, generates its revenues from a collective of niche sports. There’s little to excite U.S. market makers.

For reference purposes, Dalian Wanda (over) paid $1.2 billion for Infront and another $650 million for WTC back in ’15.

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