A study published by the Economic Enquiry, found that Twitter (TWTR) is a better predictor of sporting event results than odds makers. During the ’13-’14 English Premier League season, mathematicians at the University of East Anglia (U.K.) used software to analyze 13.8 million tweets (5.2/second). They compared the results with in-play betting on Betfair (PDYPY) and found that at any given second, a positive “combined tone” about one team indicated that team had a better chance of winning than the odds suggested. The software’s recommendations produced an average ROI of 2.28% on 900,000 bets; particularly astounding when you consider PDYPY gamblers lost an average of 5.41% on those same matches.
Howie Long-Short: The predictive power of social media works if you’re analyzing the right sections of the crowd. TWTR can beat the house. Unfortunately, the average gambler lacks the ability to analyze the tone or crowd worth following; and certainly, not in real time. The “wisdom of crowds” isn’t going to put casinos out of business.
Fan Marino: Speaking of gambling, casinos were illegal in Japan until parliament passed a controversial law last December allowing them to be part of larger resorts. Now American gaming companies are actively competing to gain foothold in a market that can be “bigger than Las Vegas”, according to Chairman of MGM Resorts International (MGM) James Murran. Both Las Vegas Sands (LVS) & MGM have repeatedly stated they would be willing to spend at least $10 billion in Japan, while Melco Resorts & Entertainment (MLCO) has expressed it would be willing to spend “whatever it takes” for the opportunity.