Comcast Out of Fox Bidding War, Focused on Landing Sky

Comcast

Comcast has dropped out of a bidding war with The Walt Disney Company (DIS) for 21st Century Fox’s (FOXA) film and television assets to focus its efforts on acquiring Sky Plc (SKYAY), the “crown jewel” of the Fox portfolio. By pulling out of the competition for Fox’s entertainment assets, Comcast avoids bidding up the implied value of SKYAY; the consequence of an “arcane provision in U.K. takeover rules”. Back on July 11th, Comcast (CMCSA) improved its cash offer for the European cable provider by 18% (to +/- $19.50/share, $34 billion); a 5% premium to the latest FOXA offer. Disney has indicated in regulatory filings that it will determine if FOXA is to continue with its pursuit of SKYAY; no decision has been made and one is not expected prior to the DIS shareholder vote on July 27th (re: Fox acquisition).

Howie Long-Short: Comcast’s decision to drop out of the bidding all but ensures that The Walt Disney Company (DIS) will take down the Fox film and tv assets. Of course, DIS had always been considered the front-runner for those FOXA properties having submitted the highest offer ($71.3 billion vs. Comcast’s $65 billion) and maintaining the support of both Rupert Murdoch and President Trump. Comcast shares popped 3% on the news, but nearly all gains realized were lost by Friday’s close ($34.30).

CMCSA appears to be willing to split the spoils with DIS, taking SKYAY and leaving the balance of the Fox assets for Disney’s taking. Comcast is now well positioned financially to outbid Disney should they make an aggressive play for SKYAY. BTIG Analyst Rich Greenfield expects that to happen saying, “while it is certainly possible that Fox (and in turn, Disney) is going to walk away from Sky and not match/exceed Comcast’s offer, it does feel hard to believe.”

SKYAY is the asset that Comcast really wants. The British pay-TV service could bring both the original content and distribution (satellite & broadband) capabilities to make the alliance “a mini Comcast-NBCU”. Adding 23 million subscribers across 7 countries, also give CMCSA the international expansion it seeks as the company strives to keep up with Amazon and Netflix in the global streaming race. While Comcast seeks 100% of Sky (including FOXA’s 39% stake), the company appears willing to settle for majority ownership; it’s unclear if Disney intends on selling its stake.

I asked Dan Cohen, Octagon SVP, Global Media Rights Consulting Division which deal (SKYAY or Fox Film/TV assets) contains the most valuable sports media rights?

Dan: Sky is the stronger sports specific acquisition with a robust portfolio not only in the UK, but other significant European markets. The crown jewel is obviously Premier League, but F1, Cricket and Golf are significant as well. Sky Italia offers up premium content after just renewing Serie A rights in Italy and Sky is a player in Ireland Spain, Germany and Austria.

Editor Note: Fox assets include Star India and Fox International channels, but no domestic rights. Comcast (had they continued pursuit of Fox assets) also intended on divesting the 22 RSNs to avoid anti-trust concerns.

Fan Marino: As Dan notes, SKYAY’s portfolio of sports broadcast rights is impressive (particularly the EPL), but the control over and value of those rights remains tentative. Exclusive broadcast deals cannot be counted on to last and as MoffettNathanson analyst Craig Moffett astutely pointed out, “absent these exclusives, Sky is, well, just satellite TV.”

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Author: John Wall Street

At the intersection of sports & finance.

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