Seminole Tribe of Florida (with an Assist from Disney) Protects Florida Gambling Monopoly

Seminole

The Walt Disney Company spent $20 million in support of a ballot initiative that would give Florida voters the right to prevent the expansion of casino gambling within the state, a measure designed to protect their tourism interests and the state’s brand as a “family friendly” destination. Amendment 3 of the Florida Constitution passed on Tuesday evening, with more than 70% of the state’s voters backing the law that will require new casino projects to gain the support (60% must vote in favor) of the state-wide voting public prior to breaking ground; few (if any) projects are likely to meet the 60% benchmark. MGM Resorts International (seeks licensure in state), the Miami Dolphins and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (both NFL teams are hoping to profit on sports betting) were among those that publicly opposed the measure; each of the 3 entities spent $500K on the proposed amendment’s “no” campaign.

Howie Long-Short: Disney (DIS) was invested in the amendment passing for its own selfish reasons, but there’s no bigger beneficiary to the “Voter Control of Gambling” amendment passing than the Seminole Tribe of Florida (spent $16 million on “yes” campaign). The Tribe dominates the Florida gaming landscape, operating in the state under a Federal gaming exemption afforded to Native Americans with little competition; the amendment’s passage ensures the moat remains around their business.

The long and costly battle for gaming company expansion into the state just became infinitely more difficult, but don’t expect casino operators to give up on Florida. Dan Alkins (Chairman of the committee opposing the ballot initiative) said should the measure pass “there’s going to be litigation just continuing on forever.” The state’s size/population, reputation as a tourism destination and abundance of retirees makes it a highly desirable locale for casinos to take up residence.

It’s worth pointing out the irony in the Miami Dolphins opposition of the amendment, while playing their home games at Hard Rock Stadium; a chain owned by the Seminole Tribe and the one that will pay the franchise $250 million over the next 18 years for naming rights.

Speaking of MGM Resorts International (MGM), the company is reportedly exploring a potential merger with Caesar’s Entertainment (CZR) to form a gaming behemoth (think: +/- 50% of all hotel rooms in Las Vegas and Atlantic City). While there’s no offer on the table (and it’s possible regulators could determine a merger would create “undue economic concentration), it’s known that “without a CEO, Caesar’s is in play” and that it’s CZR’s activist investors (own +/- 25%) driving the tie-up talk; a merger would allow the combined companies to eliminate redundant “overhead and marketing” expenditures. Wynn Resorts (WYNN) and the Genting Group (OTC: GEBHY) have also been names as companies that could have interest in a CZR (-25% YTD) take-over. With licenses in 13 states (49 casinos), the company is well positioned to benefit from wide-spread sports betting legalization.

Fan Marino: Howie mentioned Las Vegas and Atlantic City, so it seems like an opportune time to note that Eilers & Krejcik is projecting New Jersey sportsbooks will generate more sports betting revenue than those in the gambling mecca, as soon as 2021 ($442 million vs. $410 million). The boutique research firm (with a focus on the gaming industry) supported their thesis by pointing out NJ gamblers can make “sports betting transactions” on credit card (as opposed to being forced to make a deposit in a casino), that the state’s sportsbooks have created a highly competitive online/mobile market (think: pricing/promotions) and that state’s licensees have had “very high rates of black market recapture.”

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“New Fox” Front-Runner for “Old Fox” Regional Sports Networks

Fox

Earlier this month, The Walt Disney Company (DIS) sent out official bid books to potential buyers for the 22 regional sports networks they’ll acquire (and then sell-off) as part of the $71.3 billion deal for 21st Century Fox film and TV assets (to close H1 ’19). “New Fox”, focused on live sports and news programming, is believed to be the “front-runner” for the lot of “Old Fox” RSNs. A deal with Rupert Murdoch would allow Disney to unload the RSNs in a single transaction, as opposed to selling them off “piecemeal” (more timely, difficult), and would give “New Fox” the opportunity to reclaim the cable assets at a discount worth billions. Initial bids are due one week from today (Nov. 8).

Howie Long-Short: The Justice Department is requiring that DIS sell-off the RSNs to prevent the company from having too much control within the sports broadcasting space. With ESPN under its umbrella, DIS already owns the rights to more sports content than any other broadcaster.

Disney paid a premium to acquire the package of RSNs after a bidding war with Comcast drove the price tag up +/- $20 billion, but as stand-alone properties it appears the cable sports channels are worth less than the premium DIS paid. Why? “There is doubt about the long-term future of regional sports networks in their current form.” High carriage rates and declining ratings could eventually lead distributors to drop the channels. (see: DirectTV/SportsNetLA, Home of the Dodgers).

I asked Octagon SVP Global Media Rights Consulting, Dan Cohen if he thought RSNs were a risky acquisition given the current sports media landscape?

Dan: Yes, the traditional media business is under intense pressure and consumption habits have shifted and will continue to shift. However, live sports rights are still of high demand. In our current world of unbundling, I’m not sure you need as much linear distribution as once required. I can envision a world in which a RSN goes direct to consumer, technology now affords that option. The same goes for carving up multiple Virtual Multichannel Video Programming Distributor distribution deals; YouTube TV has already shown this with MLS and there’s more to come.  

Specific to RSNs, their benefit is their locality. Sports are incredibly tribal and community driven and such, local premium sports content will remain a highly valuable asset. The bigger challenge I’d pose to the new RSNs owner(s) is how will they push the envelope to connect with the next generation of consumers? What contractual obligations will they negotiate with their local teams (think: access and content exclusivity)?  What technologies will they invest in to increase interactivity with the content? How will they empower the consumer to customize their viewing options? How much will they invest to meet the demand of a consumer who now expects to be able to watch their content whenever, wherever, and across many platforms? There’s a lot of questions to be answered. 

Guggenheim valued the 22 RSNs (which collectively control broadcast rights to 44 MLB, NBA & NHL teams) at $25 billion, but expect the lot to draw offers between $16-$20 billion. Fox (FOXA) would offer DIS the cleanest transaction, but it’s been reported that P.E. firms (see: Apollo Global Management, Blackstone Group, KKR, Providence Equity Partners and Silver Lake Partners), tech companies (see: Google, Amazon, Facebook) and broadcasters (see: Sinclair Broadcast Group) are also all kicking tires on the cable networks.

Howie: Why is Guggenheim’s estimate so much higher than the projected winning bid? Who ultimately takes down the lot?

Dan: Initially, when news first broke and I expected Comcast to bid aggressively, I thought the valuation was between $23-$25 billion; with the potential to reach $28 billion if an aggressive bidding war broke out. However, with Comcast seemingly not bidding on the RSNs, I would lower my expectations and estimate that they’ll be valued between $18–$22 billion with a high watermark of $25 billion.

As for who takes the lot down, Fox is certainly the lead horse. That said, there’s still a few more laps to run and I expect Charter, Liberty and even Sinclair with PE backing to make a pitch. I also wouldn’t discount a surprise challenger bid from lesser widely publicized media co.

While it’s been surmised for some time, that the Yankees (which control 20%) would buy back the YES Network (they have first right to do so), prospective bidders have been asked to include YES in their offers; that’s because DIS is reportedly seeking $5-6 billion for YES, a significant premium to its $4 billion valuation. Of course, YES is the most valuable RSN among the group. It’s been estimated that collectively, the RSNs generate $2 billion/year in EBITDA; YES (2nd most expensive cable channel, ESPN 1st) is responsible for bringing in +/- 25% of that total.

Fan Marino: Sure, subscriptions (to RSNs) and ratings (to the games on the RSNs) are down, but RSNs continue to warrant high carriage prices and relative to the remainder of the networks in your cable package, they continue to perform well ratings wise. In fact, the 29 RSNs that own MLB rights saw ratings rise +2% YoY during the ’18 season, league games were the most watched programming in primetime on cable television in 28 of 29 markets (Miami is the exception) and 12 of the RSNs were tops in their market in primetime, amongst all programmers.

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NHL Experiences Growth in Non-Traditional Markets, Seeks Growth in China

NHL

NBC Sports has decided to add NHL regular season games to its programming schedule. Between NBC and NBCSN, they’ll carry 109 regular-season games during 2018-2019 season (which got underway Wednesday evening), the most in any single season since the company acquired league broadcast rights back in 2005-2006. As part of the expanded coverage, the peacock network’s sports division will introduce “Wednesday Night Hockey” (on NBCSN); featuring earlier start times (7p or 7:30p EST) and a record 17 broadcast double-headers. 13 games, including the league’s marquee events (see: All-Star Game, Winter Classic, Stadium Series), will air on the NBC broadcast network; the January ’19 NHL All-Star game will mark the first time the annual showcase has been carried live on broadcast television since ’97.

Howie Long-Short: NBC Sports (CMCSA) executive producer and president of production Sam Flood said it was viewership growth in “non-traditional NHL markets” and the “emergence of a number of rising stars” that drove the company to expand its programming schedule. By starting games earlier and carrying 17 double-headers, they’re able to air more games involving teams from the Western Conference; meaning more opportunities for fans to see emerging stars like Connor McDavid (Oilers), Patrik Laine (Jets) & Nathan MacKinnon (Avalanche).

If you’re not getting your hockey fill from NBC/NBCSN, NHL.tv (the league’s OTT subscription service) has added 50% more “local broadcast pre-game and post-game shows” plus “intermission shows”, in addition to 180 out-of-market league games; content drawn from team RSNs. Disney Streaming Services (operates NHL.tv) offers the service on a full-season, monthly and single team basis; unlike with NBA League Pass, fans do not have the option to purchase individual games or periods. It’s worth mentioning that in addition to NHL.tv, ESPN+, Disneyflix and BAM-Tech Media all fall under the Disney Streaming Services (DIS) umbrella.

NBC Sports is paying $2 billion (over 10 years) for the league’s exclusive media rights (through the ’21-’22 season). Last season, games that aired on NBC experienced a 4% YoY rise in viewership (to 1.34 million), but across all platforms (includes NBCSN & digital) the audience declined -12% (to 417K); NBCSN broadcasts really dragged the average down, averaging just 302,000 viewers/game.  Starting games earlier, showing a wider variety of teams and showcasing the league’s best players should help NBCSN post better ratings during the 2018-2019 season.

Fan Marino: While non-traditional hockey markets (think: San Jose, Las Vegas) have given a boost to viewership here in the U.S., the NHL appears to perceive China as the next horizon; in fact, the league played a few preseason games in the country (and will in 4 of next 6 seasons) in September and recently opened a youth hockey school in Shenzhen.

President Xi Jinping’s plan to have 300 million winter sports fans in the country by the start of the ‘22 Beijing Olympics has served as a catalyst for the league’s Asian growth efforts. Of course, the NHL isn’t participating in the ’18 Olympic Games and should they decide to pass on the ’22 Games, it could alienate the Chinese government and halt the league’s progress in the country. Commissioner Gary Bettman disputes that notion arguing that one tournament would not define the sports long-term growth prospects in China.

Speaking of non-traditional hockey markets, on Tuesday the NHL’s expansion committee recommended adding Seattle as the league’s 32nd franchise, the formal vote will occur in December. The David Bonderman/Jerry Bruckheimer ownership group hopes to play the club’s inaugural season at a redeveloped KeyArena in ’20-’21, but ’21-’22 may be more realistic with a player lockout pending in ‘20.

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Comcast Takes Control Sky PLC, to Challenge Netflix, Amazon Overseas

SKY

Comcast emerged triumphant in its effort to take over Sky PLC (Europe’s largest pay TV provider) after outbidding Twenty-First Century Fox (on behalf of Disney), by +/- $3.6 billion, in a rare settlement auction; Comcast’s bid valued the company at +/- $39 billion. Disney, which will take over most of Fox’s film and TV assets, subsequently announced it would sell Comcast Fox’s existing 39% stake in Sky at the auction-winning bid price of $22.54/share. The addition of Sky expands Comcast’s distribution outside of the U.S. (to UK, Ireland, Germany Austria, Italy, Spain and Switzerland) and increases their global footprint to +/- 53 million customers; existing infrastructure that puts the company in position to effectively compete with Netflix (+/- 29 million subscribers across Europe in 2017) and Amazon outside of North America.

Howie Long-Short: Selling its 39% stake in Sky PLC (SKYAY) at $22.54/share ($15.6 billion) must be considered a win for DIS considering it valued control in the company at just $20.44/share during the blind auction and Comcast didn’t need their stake (i.e. little leverage) to gain control over the British pay-TV group.

The +/- $15.6 billion price tag greatly reduces the financial leverage DIS needs to close the $71.3 billion Fox (FOXA) acquisition and when you consider the revenue that’s expected to be generated from the sale of FOXA’s 22 RSNs (valued at +/- $15 billion-22 billion), it’s feasible net acquisition costs could drop all the way down to +/- $35 billion. Significantly reducing the financial debt load is important to Disney with costly broadcast rights renewals on the horizon (see: NFL 2021, MLB 2021, NBA 2025) and the company undergoing the capital-intensive transition from legacy wholesale model to a direct-to-consumer business model (Disneyflix). Disney shareholders seem to be on board with the decision, shares are up +/- 6% from the morning of the tender announcement (9.26); they’ll open at $116.94 on Monday 10.1.

Fan Marino: While some might believe that Comcast’s acquisition of Sky (EPL’s most valued media partner in U.K.) would ensure NBC remains the Premier League’s U.S. broadcast partner beyond the ’21-’22 season, historically, the EPL has ignored affiliation between rights holders and taken the highest offer; back in ’16, Sky in Germany lost EPL rights to then-newcomer DAZN (unproven, yet deep pocketed), despite have the rights of 126/128 games in the U.K.

Across the pond, U.K. soccer fans must be wondering if there will be any changes coming to Sky’s broadcast coverage in the wake of the ownership change. English futbol fans aren’t going to want NBC’s “Americanized” version, so Comcast would be wise to let Sky run their EPL coverage autonomously; focusing on the distribution of non-sports entertainment assets instead (see: Universal Pictures).

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ESPN Acquires Soccer, Boxing Rights for ESPN+, Adding Subscribers Faster Than Expected

ESPN 200x200

ESPN has announced a multi-year deal with Italy’s Serie A to broadcast league matches in the U.S. Most games will air on the WWL’s subscription streaming service ESPN+ (340+), but a Match of the Week will be broadcast on ESPN or ESPN2; those matches also be available in Spanish on ESPN Deportes. The exclusive rights agreement with the Italian futbol league is set to begin on August 18th with Ronaldo’s Juventus debut (8.18.18) on ESPN+.

ESPN also signed a new 7-year deal with Top Rank Boxing to replace the 4-year agreement the companies agreed to back in the summer of 2017. The new pact calls for ESPN to bring fight fans 54 cards/year, 36 of which (includes 24 international cards) will be exclusive to ESPN+ subscribers.

Howie Long-Short: ESPN’s television subscription base continued to dwindle in fiscal Q3 (though not as fast as it had been), ad revenue declined (see: NBA Finals sweep) and programming costs increased, but the company still managed to post mid-single digit revenue growth (to $15.23 billion) for the quarter thanks to rising affiliate fees and “rapid growth in digital MPVD subscribers.” CEO Bob Iger added that ESPN+ is adding subscribers faster than projected. As for Disney, their cable networks business in aggregate reported a 5% decline in operating income (to $1.4 billion); their investment in ESPN+ was among the reasons given for the regression. DIS shares have fallen 2.5% since Tuesday’s earnings call, closing Wednesday at $113.98.

For those wondering about the 22 Fox RSNs, Iger did mention that “the process of selling them” is underway. We wrote on June 29th, that an “established linear player” was most likely to acquire the RSNs (minus YES); mentioning CBS (think: CBS Sports HQ), Turner Sports (T, B/R Live) and Discovery Communications (DISCA, which has made a significant push for rights in Europe) as possible landing spots. Add Sinclair Broadcast Group (SBGI) to that list. CEO Chris Ripley expressed interest in the assets on their earnings call this week, calling them, “a good fit with the broadcast footprint and operations.”

Fan Marino: ESPN’s EVP of Programming & Scheduling Burke Magnus has been vocal about making “ESPN+ home to the world’s best soccer leagues” and by proxy, “an indispensable destination” for domestic soccer fans. While it’s an admirable goal and one that would certainly grow subscriptions, it’s certainly not representative of the splintered market we have today. In fact, with rights spread out amongst so many broadcasters U.S. soccer fans are likely to have to choose the leagues/games they’re willing to forego. It’s certainly not reasonable to expect fans to sign up for ESPN+ ($4.99/mo.) B/R Live ($7.99/mo.) NBC Sports Gold ($50/season) etc. and still carry a $80+/mo. cable bundle to watch games on ESPN, Fox Sports and BeIN.

It needs to be noted that Top Rank will not be promoting the 24 international cards contained within their deal with ESPN. Bob Arum & Co. acquired the U.S. broadcast rights from Frank Warren (U.K.), Zanfer Promotions (Mexico) and Teiken Boxing (Japan).

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X Games Experiences Massive Growth Across All Channels

X Games

X Games Minneapolis 2018 experienced double-digit growth on linear television and triple-digit growth across digital/streaming services and social networks. Long considered to have a niche audience, television viewership for the 4-day action sports competition rose +38% YoY across ESPN, ESPN & ABC (DIS); it was the 2nd straight X Games (X Games Aspen 2018) to experience double-digit growth. On digital/social, X Games’ YouTube Channel subscribers streamed over 26 million minutes of extreme sports competition (+646% YoY), Facebook fans tallied 4 million video views (+210% YoY) and the number of Instagram videos watched rose +225% YoY; authentic “behind the scenes” access (i.e. not staged) and instant highlights of tricks, made usage of the that app a must for second screen viewers.

Howie Long-Short: The 38% YoY increase in television viewership comes with a caveat. The 2017 Summer X Games were the lowest rated Summer X Games in history; a -35% decline from 2016. With that said, the double-digit increase is noteworthy because pay television trends are going in the wrong direction. Demo reported that Q1 ’18 viewership declined -56% within the 12-17 age demo, -48% in the 18-24 demo viewership and 34% between 25-34 year olds. When you consider those figures, you must applaud ESPN for growing X Games viewership with fans in both the 18-34 (+34%) and 12-34 (+21%) demographics.

Fan Marino: Rising attendance (+8% to 119,000) can be attributed to X Games placing a greater focus on the “X Games Experience” (i.e. giving fans entertainment options beyond just the competition). What was once solely an action sports showcase has morphed into an experience that blends action sports with art, food and music; Ice Cube, Kaskade and Zedd headlined at this summer’s Games.

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Comcast Out of Fox Bidding War, Focused on Landing Sky

Comcast

Comcast has dropped out of a bidding war with The Walt Disney Company (DIS) for 21st Century Fox’s (FOXA) film and television assets to focus its efforts on acquiring Sky Plc (SKYAY), the “crown jewel” of the Fox portfolio. By pulling out of the competition for Fox’s entertainment assets, Comcast avoids bidding up the implied value of SKYAY; the consequence of an “arcane provision in U.K. takeover rules”. Back on July 11th, Comcast (CMCSA) improved its cash offer for the European cable provider by 18% (to +/- $19.50/share, $34 billion); a 5% premium to the latest FOXA offer. Disney has indicated in regulatory filings that it will determine if FOXA is to continue with its pursuit of SKYAY; no decision has been made and one is not expected prior to the DIS shareholder vote on July 27th (re: Fox acquisition).

Howie Long-Short: Comcast’s decision to drop out of the bidding all but ensures that The Walt Disney Company (DIS) will take down the Fox film and tv assets. Of course, DIS had always been considered the front-runner for those FOXA properties having submitted the highest offer ($71.3 billion vs. Comcast’s $65 billion) and maintaining the support of both Rupert Murdoch and President Trump. Comcast shares popped 3% on the news, but nearly all gains realized were lost by Friday’s close ($34.30).

CMCSA appears to be willing to split the spoils with DIS, taking SKYAY and leaving the balance of the Fox assets for Disney’s taking. Comcast is now well positioned financially to outbid Disney should they make an aggressive play for SKYAY. BTIG Analyst Rich Greenfield expects that to happen saying, “while it is certainly possible that Fox (and in turn, Disney) is going to walk away from Sky and not match/exceed Comcast’s offer, it does feel hard to believe.”

SKYAY is the asset that Comcast really wants. The British pay-TV service could bring both the original content and distribution (satellite & broadband) capabilities to make the alliance “a mini Comcast-NBCU”. Adding 23 million subscribers across 7 countries, also give CMCSA the international expansion it seeks as the company strives to keep up with Amazon and Netflix in the global streaming race. While Comcast seeks 100% of Sky (including FOXA’s 39% stake), the company appears willing to settle for majority ownership; it’s unclear if Disney intends on selling its stake.

I asked Dan Cohen, Octagon SVP, Global Media Rights Consulting Division which deal (SKYAY or Fox Film/TV assets) contains the most valuable sports media rights?

Dan: Sky is the stronger sports specific acquisition with a robust portfolio not only in the UK, but other significant European markets. The crown jewel is obviously Premier League, but F1, Cricket and Golf are significant as well. Sky Italia offers up premium content after just renewing Serie A rights in Italy and Sky is a player in Ireland Spain, Germany and Austria.

Editor Note: Fox assets include Star India and Fox International channels, but no domestic rights. Comcast (had they continued pursuit of Fox assets) also intended on divesting the 22 RSNs to avoid anti-trust concerns.

Fan Marino: As Dan notes, SKYAY’s portfolio of sports broadcast rights is impressive (particularly the EPL), but the control over and value of those rights remains tentative. Exclusive broadcast deals cannot be counted on to last and as MoffettNathanson analyst Craig Moffett astutely pointed out, “absent these exclusives, Sky is, well, just satellite TV.”

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Comcast Preparing to Divest 22 Fox RSNs, To Submit 2nd All-Cash Bid by July 27th  

Comcast

Comcast (CMCSA) is reportedly lining up buyers for 21st Century Fox’s (FOXA) regional sports networks to alleviate anti-trust concerns, as it prepares a bid that would be favorable to The Walt Disney Company’s (DIS) $71 billion dollar offer (cash and stock) for FOXA film & TV assets. CMCSA is open to divesting all 22 RSNs, but believes just 8 overlap with the existing Comcast sports footprint. Reuters is reporting that the company has held conversations with publicly-traded buyout firms Apollo Global Management (APO) and Blackstone Group (BX). Just 2 weeks ago, the U.S. Department of Justice approved DIS’ bid after reaching a settlement with the mouse house to rid itself of the regional sports networks.

Howie Long-Short: It’s been assumed that the RSNs will fetch $20 billion+ (Comcast’s first bid placed a $24 billion valuation on them), so selling them off will help Comcast coffers as the company prepares to submit a 2nd all-cash bid (no dollar amounts given). FOXA shareholders are scheduled to vote on the DIS bid on July 27th, Comcast will submit their bid prior.

Rumors of P.E. firms taking down the RSNs is relatively surprising as most of the discussions surrounding potential landing spots having focused on telecom and media companies. Everyone from Amazon (AMZN) and YouTube (GOOGL) to AT&T (T) and Dish Network (DISH) has been mentioned.

I asked T.K. Gore, sports media consultant, advisor and professor, for his thoughts on who lands the RSNs?

T.K.: The RSN world is a tricky business and experience — coupled with deep pockets — matters. Look for groups like Liberty Media and AT&T to get involved given their experiences.

MSG is among the companies that has been associated with having interest in the regional networks. James Dolan has said that he’d be interested in acquiring the assets “at the right price”, noting they’re highly profitable now but a “slow, declining revenue stream.”

Fan Marino: The 22 RSNs collectively control exclusive broadcast rights to 44 NFL, NBA, MLB & NHL franchises, including teams in Detroit, Southern California, Dallas, Cleveland and Miami. The YES Network is the most valuable of the lot, worth an estimated $4 billion; the Yankees are likely to re-acquire that network.

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Disney Agrees to Divest 22 Regional Sports Networks

Disney200x200

The Department of Justice has approved The Walt Disney Company’s (DIS) $71.3 billion ($38/share, increased bid from $52.4 billion, includes +/- 50% in cash) acquisition of 21st Century Fox (FOXA) television and film assets, after reaching a settlement with DIS that calls for the company to divest FOXA’s 22 regional sports networks. U.S. A.G. (Anti-Trust Division) Makan Delrahim, concerned DIS’ control of the RSNs would create a potential monopoly, said that the settlement ensures “sports programming competition is preserved in the local markets where Disney and Fox compete for cable and satellite distribution.” The settlement, which requires DIS to divest the RSNs within 90 days of closing, requires approval from a judge; but that is a formality. DISintends on pursuing a 3rd party buyer for the RSNs, as opposed to submitting a new offer; FOXA is not thought to be interested in retaining the assets.

Howie Long-Short: DOJ approval gives DIS an advantage over Comcast (CMCSA) in the competition for the Murdoch empire, just two weeks after Comcast submitted an all-cash bid worth $65 billion ($35/share). While the approval alone won’t win DIS the assets (Comcast is expected to submit a counter offer), it won’t hurt considering it’s been thought the FOXA board has long preferred to sell the assets to DIS in the belief the Comcast bid is bound to face anti-trust concerns. That’s debatable. CMCSA would also divest the RSNs and FOXA’s stake in Hulu is really the only asset that might draw anti-trust concerns; and that doesn’t appear to be a major hurdle. It’s been thought FOXA assets could draw upwards of $43/share.

It should be noted that if the DIS deal goes through as is, FOXA shareholders would own 19% of the joint company. FOXA shares are up +11% (to $49.79) since DIS submitted their latest offer on June 20thDIS hasn’t fared as well, the stock is down -1.25% (to $104.77) over that same period.

Fan Marino: While the Yankees are likely to repurchase YES Network, that still leaves 21 RSNs and a lot of regional sports broadcast rights for taking. Sure, it’s possible that FAANG will pursue exclusive broadcast rights, I would bet on an established linear player making a play to acquire the 5th most important channel on a subscriber’s cable package. CBS (think: CBS Sports HQ), Turner Sports (T, B/R Live) and Discovery Communications (DISCA, which has made a significant push for rights in Europe) are all possible landing spots.

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